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News > Brazil

Lula Likely to Win Next Election in Brazil

  • The launch of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's electoral campaign is scheduled for May 7. Apr. 19, 2022.

    The launch of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's electoral campaign is scheduled for May 7. Apr. 19, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@TMT30_

Published 19 April 2022

According to reports from the political risk analysis consulting Eurasia Group, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has a 70 percent chance of winning the next elections in Brazil.

The group said that Lula could win in the first round and in a possible second, he would beat all of his opponents, as shown by survey results.  

Lula & Alckim Make an Alliance to Win the Brazilian Elections

A total of 12 institutes were surveyed on executive assessment as part of the study conducted by the Eurasia Group. The survey results were published between May 2020 and April of this year. 

The agency maintains that President Lula has winning possibilities for the October elections, although the ultra-right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro's performance has improved in the government's evaluation polls. 

Notwithstanding, Bolsonaro's re-election chances increased from 20 percent to 25 percent, projections of a 70 percent victory for the former Brazilian president remain unchanged, Eurasia said. 

GOING TO PT: The world's largest political risk analysis consultancy, the Eurasia Group, evaluates that Lula (PT) is the favorite to win the October elections. According to the document, the PT has a 70% chance of victory.

According to journalist Lilian Venturini of the newspaper Valor Economico, the percentage for Lula remains the same because, in the Eurasia survey, the chances of a third-way candidate being elected fell from 10 percent to 5.0 percent.

Former judge Sérgio Moro was rejected to run in the presidential race by the Union Brazil party's leadership.  Joao Doria, from the Brazilian Social Democracy Party, and Simone Tebet, from the Brazilian Democratic Movement, have also not made any progress in their pre-candidacy. 

The consulting group said that only former governor Ciro Gomes who remains in third place but far from Lula and Bolsonaro, would have a chance of being reelected if his performance at the Planalto Palace, the seat of the executive branch of the Brazilian Federal Government, were approved by more than 40 percent of the electoral body. 

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