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News > Brazil

Lula Could Have 52 to 56% Of Valid Votes in Runoff-Quaest Poll

  • The latest Quaest poll points to former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil's winner of the runoff election. Oct. 6, 2022.

    The latest Quaest poll points to former president Luis Inácio Lula da Silva as Brazil's winner of the runoff election. Oct. 6, 2022. | Photo: Twitter/@Jacilei16014018

Published 6 October 2022

A Quaest poll released today shows 48 percent voting intention for Lula, while 41 percent for Bolsonaro for Brazil's runoff election.

Two thousand people were personally interviewed between Monday and Friday of this week for the survey, which was contracted by Banco Genial and registered at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-07940/2022.

Lula Consolidates Political Alliances Before Ballot in Brazil

According to the poll, the leftist candidate and leader of the Workers' Party (PT), Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, would win in the second round with 54 percent of the valid votes (excluding blank or null ballots). At the same time, incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) would obtain 46 percent.

It also showed that the rejection rate for both candidates dropped from 44 to 41 percent for the PT leader and 55 to 50 percent for the PL candidate.

In the first electoral round on October 2, Lula won 48.4 percent of the total valid votes and left Bolsonaro behind with 43.2 percent. As neither obtained an absolute majority (half plus one of the valid votes), they will compete in a runoff election on October 30.

1/ Genial/Quaest poll for the second round shows that Lula could have between 46 and 50% of the voting intentions, and Bolsonaro could have between 39 and 43%. Lula could have between 52 and 56% of the valid votes, while Bolsonaro could have between 44 and 48%.

Regarding the criticisms raised against research institutes after the first round results, Quaest director Felipe Nunes said, "What the polls did not detect was the intensity of the growth of votes for Bolsonaro in the final stretch."

Polls predicted Lula as the candidate with the highest voting intentions, followed by Bolsonaro, as both were far ahead of the others, Nunes said, according to an article published in O Globo newspaper.

The director said that "the fear of the return of the PT, the deservingness of a second chance and the personal rejection of the candidates are three indicators that will make the difference in this new cycle of disputes." 

On the runoff, Nunes said leftist Lula and rightist Bolsonaro "are looking for a new opportunity to show Brazil that they can be better." 

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