Civil War in Afghanistan Might Increase Refugee Flow to Europe

The Taliban's advances in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of the U.S. and NATO forces are currently sending thousands of Afghans fleeing westward, according to David Vestenskov, a Defence Academy chief consultant who has been monitoring the situation in Afghanistan for ten years, said in an interview for Danish Radio.

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“Afghans are fleeing because the system that has been built over the past 20 years is being phased out,” David explains. “The West chose to withdraw without any political agreements or prospects for political agreements. That leaves a security vacuum,” he said, predicting that will be exploited not only by the Taliban but by numerous ethnic groups.

According to figures provided by the UN refugee agency IOM, 30,000 Afghans flee their country each week, which is up to 40 percent more than before the international troops began to withdraw from the country. An even higher number is internally displaced.

In Vestenskov's analysis, this situation creates a risk of a new wave of refugees towards Europe.

“If we get to see a civil war, then anarchy will arise in many places across the country, and people will flee from it,” Vestenskov said, comparing with the situation in Syria, where over six million people are on the run, according to the UN. “A civil war with different fronts is what creates the most difficult conditions for a civilian population. And the only chances of survival may be to flee," he added.

In 2020, Afghanistan was the second-largest international provider of refugees, second to only Syria. In recent months, the situation has escalated, because the US-led Western forces that have been stationed in the country for the past two decades are on their way out.

Most European forces stationed on the ground left in June. Except for a few U.S. units, the West has largely left Afghanistan. This vacuum has created opportunities for the Taliban, engaged in making rapid strides and taking over power in ever more extensive parts of the country.

Vestenskov considers that the feeling of fear is greatest among those who have worked for and supported the Western presence.“They fear the society they may come to live under and their own security because they have been on the side of the conflict, which now seems to be losing power,” he mused.

Vestenskov predicted that most Afghans would try to flee to neighboring Pakistan or Iran at first. But from there, some will definitely seek further towards Europe, which is already being felt at the Turkish border. Last week, Turkish authorities reported a boat carrying more than 200 Afghan refugees heading for Europe in the Aegean Sea.

“The Afghans will probably have to go through an internal conflict before a sustainable power structure lands without an external actor like the West. It will force some political solutions that have more sustainable preconditions when the West is not included in the equation,” he concluded.

In 2015, at the peak of the current migrant crisis, Europe saw a record 1.3 million asylum seekers, mainly from the Middle East and North Africa.