COVID-19 Thrives in Cool and Dry Climates, Study Holds

The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Thursday published a study led by the University of Maryland’s Institute of Human Virology (IHV) holding that COVID-19 follows a seasonal pattern and thrives best in cool and dry climates.

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To find relationships between the climate and the pandemic’s spread, the IHV scientists analyzed climate data recorded from January 1 to March 10 in 50 cities with and without coronavirus disease.

They compared eight cities with a substantial spread of COVID-19 (Wuhan, Tokyo, Daegu, Qom, Milan, Paris, Seattle, and Madrid) with 42 cities that have not been affected or did not have substantial community spread.

“Areas with substantial community transmission of COVID-19 had distribution roughly along the 30°N to 50°N latitude corridor with consistently similar weather patterns, consisting of mean temperatures of 5 to 11°C combined with low specific and absolute humidity,” the IHV study states.

Maps produced by the IHV-led research team showed a climate strip in the northern hemisphere that contains virus-friendly weather conditions.

The study determines that the distribution of substantial community outbreaks of COVID according to certain values of latitude, temperature and humidity are consistent with the behavior of a seasonal respiratory virus and that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has more difficulties to spread under conditions of higher temperature and humidity.

Analysis of the distribution of coronavirus outbreaks could help predict the areas with the highest risk of transmission in the future, although the study authors warn that this will require new research on climate models.