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Sociologist and political analyst Artemio López, head of the consulting firm Equis, predicted this Thursday a national victory of the Frente de Todos (FdT) by "four points" in the open, simultaneous and mandatory primaries (PASO) this Sunday, estimating that this difference could stretch to "six points" in the province of Buenos Aires, the district that concentrates almost 40% of the voter roll of the country.
When consulted by Telam, López said that the FdT's national victory would have as its epicenter, besides the Buenos Aires district, in the NEA and NOA regions and some areas of Patagonia.
The sociologist detailed that, according to his surveys, the ruling party will win in the Third and First Sectors of the province of Buenos Aires, which correspond to the south and north of the conurbation, respectively, and that the Peronist ticket could also win the Second Section, which is the rural area bordering Santa Fe.
"We have a national triumph of the FdT by four points, which can stretch to six points in the Province," emphasized López.
Meanwhile, the "consolidation" of the electoral performance of the opposition alliance Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) will be verified through results from the Federal Capital and the provinces of Santa Fe, Mendoza and Córdoba, as well as a sector of the interior of the province of Buenos Aires, he said.
On the other hand, the consultant said that the "surprise" of the election day might be given by the pre-candidate for the Deputy for the City of Buenos Aires of "La Libertad Avanza," Javier Milei, a liberal, who could add "between 6 and 8 points," which may come from the JxC.
López stated that, in that district, the performance of the former governor of Buenos Aires and current pre-candidate for national deputy for JxC María Eugenia Vidal will be "very weak" and will be around "30 points," followed in the primaries of that front by Ricardo López Murphy, with "10%," and the former Minister of Health of Macrista Adolfo Rubinstein, who could obtain "2%."
For the Equis consultant, the "novelty" will be that the first pre-candidate to Deputy of the City for the FdT, Leandro Santoro, "could break the 30 points barrier and compete head to head with Vidal."
#Argentina closed the political campaign for the Primary Elections (PASO) to define which candidates will participate in the November parliamentary elections, in which 127 of the 257 seats in the Lower House and 24 out of 72 Senate seats will be renewed.https://t.co/MKPyLFvqw3
When asked about the participation of young voters, López indicated that in the 16 to 19 years old age group, "there is certain skepticism and detachment" with civic participation due to the fact that "an identity system was not built to summon them to play a leading role" in the electoral process.
Yet, he emphasized that at the same time, the "preeminence" in this sector is still held by the FdT, acknowledging that there is "less involvement" of young people compared to other recent times.
In this sense, López referred to the militant participation that took place in 2008 during the discussion for Resolution 125 on agricultural retentions.
"The Government did not manage, due to the pandemic, to build a system of confrontation against the central powers and stir up rebellion, as Néstor Kirchner and Cristina Fernández did," he reasoned.
Asked about the "apathy" shown through different poll results, López pointed out that although next Sunday's PASO "may show a lower participation" compared to other times, the general elections of November 14 will have a higher turnout because "they confront two antagonistic models," in reference to the FdT and JxC.