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The progressive recovery of several important indicators and the continued control of the COVID-9 pandemic predict that Vietnam's economy will grow six percent or more by 2021, local experts said Tuesday.
Duong Manh Hung, a senior analyst at the General Statistics Office, recalled that if in the first quarter of this year the increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was only 0.39 percent, in the third quarter it reached 2.62 percent.
The containment of COVID-19 sets the pace for all sectors to return to a new normality. For example, the industrial sector only grew by 2.3 percent in August, but in September, it grew by 3.5 percent and in October by 3.6 percent, he claimed.
Hung also cited as an example of the recovery of the economy, the founding of 12,200 new enterprises in October, and another 5,000 to productive and social life, 20 percent more than in September.
However, he noted that everything would depend on how the world's largest economies, especially such important partners of Vietnam as China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea, fare. It is possible that only in 2022 or 2023 will we see rapid growth again, he concluded.
Vo Tri Thanh, a member of the Prime Minister's economic advisory team, agreed with him. A full recovery will take time because pandemic aside, it has exacerbated protectionism in many nations and can negatively affect Vietnam's growth.
Vu Sy Cuong, an expert from the Academy of Finance, believes that the 2021 GDP expansion will be more than 6 percent. Still, he similarly pointed out another element against this from happening.
Since early October, the country's central region has been hit several times by storms and typhoons, with substantial losses in infrastructure and the halting of most economic activities. There is much to rebuild, he said.
But GDP growth in one year is calculated from the previous one, so yes," he agreed, "I think that in 2021 it will be above six percent."
Vietnamese experts' estimates are below those of several international organizations.
According to a recent study by Standard Chartered, the Vietnamese economy will most likely be one of the few to grow this year in Southeast Asia, if not the only one. The British bank estimated a three percent increase in GDP in 2020 and 7.8 percent in 2021.
Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation, one of the largest banking and financial services institutions globally, estimated the rise at 8.1 percent in 2021.
Other recent studies by entities such as the Asian Development Bank and Fitch Solutions give the Vietnamese economy similar growth margins this year and next year.