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A new polling analysis indicates Mexico's presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) could win a congressional majority in the upcoming national elections: his Morena party and likely allies of the Labor Party and Social Encounter Party average 44 percent support.
Bloomberg's most recent poll tracker – an average of poll results – gives AMLO 46 percent of support among likely voters, handing him an 18-point lead over Ricardo Anaya, of the National Action Party (PAN).
According to the global financial company UBS, AMLO is not only en route to become Mexico's next president, but his 'Together We Will Make History' coalition could also win a majority in the 500-seat lower house of parliament.
A legislative majority would allow AMLO to follow through on some campaign promises, including the revision of oil and energy sector contracts awarded to private and foreign companies and the expansion of social spending.
With six weeks before the July 1 election, these results are not being welcomed by financial speculators and investors, who fear privatization of the oil and energy sectors could be reversed.
Despite the concern, New York-based investor Shamaila Khan, director of emerging-market debt at AllianceBernstein, told Bloomberg it is highly improbable that Lopez Obrador will gain the two-thirds majority needed to reverse laws such as the landmark energy opening of 2014, which brought foreign investment into the industry for the first time.
AMLO's promises to reverse privatization and expand social spending are very popular among the Mexican electorate.
Earlier this week, presidential candidate Margarita Zavala, who garnered 2.7 percent of potential voters, exited the race to "free those who generously supported me so they can make their decision in the difficult race for Mexico."
Since she was a long-time member of the PAN, some think she will endorse Anaya.
On Thursday, AMLO said: "I predicted that around April or May they would unite against us, and it seems like they are seeking that path.
"I respect her decision. Many of those who were going to vote for her, I am sure will vote for us now… People have already decided in favor of a true change. Even if they all unite, we will win."
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