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  • Jair Bolsonaro speaking during a ceremony in Brasilia, Brazil, on February 18, 2020

    Jair Bolsonaro speaking during a ceremony in Brasilia, Brazil, on February 18, 2020 | Photo: Xinhua

Published 21 February 2020
Opinion

Experts doubt that the lower numbers are in fact related to Bolsonaro's policies.

The G1 website, in association with the Public Security Forum and the Center for the Study of Violence at the University of São Paulo (NEV-USP), published statistical information about a lower homicide rate in Brazil.  Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's president, and Minister Sergio Moro are now presenting this statistic variation as an accomplishment of their administration. 

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These results correspond with the Justice and Public Security Ministry data, a forecast that announced a decrease of 21,4% for 2019. According to G1's publication, that gauge dropped 19 %.

Despite the president's triumphalist vision, Public Security experts offer other interpretations on this topic. As the national media Brasil de Fato publishes, authorized voices explain that the reduction in homicides is hardly related to government policies.

On his profile on Twitter, Bolsonaro published: "2019, our first year of government: the lowest murder rate in the decade. We are on the right side". 



Bruno Paes Manso, NEV's researcher, points out that the decreasing tendency corresponded with the prior reduction on this indicator in Brazil in 2018 when it got reduced to 13%. According to the expert, the time-lapse credited with this indicator is not enough to be a result of the administrative measures.

"If we think in what the federal government did to control violence, it is practically null; it lost lots of time with gun possession relaxation. It also lost a lot of time trying to approve the security plan of Minister Sergio Moro. These were two initiatives that had no impact on everyday life," the expert said. 

Luis Fábio Paiva, Professor of Sociology at the Federal University of Ceara, also explains that the killing ratio between 2017, 2018, and 2019 is not sustainable because of the different circumstances every year.  The academic points out 2017 as the deadliest year because of an intense factions war, especially in Ceara state. 

Statistically, Brazil finished 2019 with 41.635 homicides, 51.558 in 2018, and an alarming number of 59.128 in 2017. 

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