Five years earlier than previously estimated, China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy in 2028, due to the contrasting recovery of the two countries from the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of experts has said.
RELATED:
Russia Pledges to Invest $200 Billion to Reduce Poverty
"For some time, a dominant theme of the global economy has been the economic struggle between the United States and China," the Center for Business and Economic Research (CEBR) said in an annual report released Saturday.
"The COVID-19 pandemic and the corresponding economic consequences have certainly tipped this rivalry in China's favor," he added.
The CEBR noted that China's "skillful management of the pandemic," with its swift lockdown measures, and the impact of COVID-19 on long-term growth in the West, meant that China's relative economic performance had improved.
China appears to be on track to grow an average of 5.7% annually between 2021 and 2025 before slowing down to 4.5% annually between 2026 and 2030.
While the United States is likely to have a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, its growth would slow to 1.9% annually between 2022 and 2024, and then to 1.6%.
Japan would remain the world's third-largest economy, in dollar terms, until the early 2030s, when it would be overtaken by India, which would further push Germany from fourth to fifth place.
The UK, currently the fifth-largest economy by CEBR’s measure, would slide to sixth place beginning in 2024.
Newsletter
