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U.S. Political experts stated that the administration would not agree to all the security guarantees proposed by the Russian government; they say that a compromise might be possible.
According to experts' opinions, it is possible to establish a Russia-U.S compromise. Still, the U.S. administration will not agree with all Russian proposals on security guarantees when it comes to the issue of NATO's eastward expansion.
Moscow introduced on December 17 a draft agreement which comprises Russia, the United States and NATO related to security guarantees proposal. If the agreement proceeds, the document would prevent NATO's eastward enlargement and prohibit the U.S. and Russia from intermediate and shorter-range ballistic missiles within striking distance of each other's territory.
It is expected for Moscow and Washington to hold negotiations next January 10 on security guarantees, followed by the Russia-NATO Council meeting scheduled for January 12 and on January 13 a summit of Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. An adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, Thomas Shea, considers that the interconnected meetings mark a stage for a diplomatic conference that may create a treaty to relieve the risk of armed conflict and for Ukraine to become a neutral country.
"We might hope four five-party talks on such an arrangement: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, NATO and the U.S. It is time for evidence of good faith to be shown by all five, following a timeline to the future. All five should view this as a remarkable development, but especially fragile during these times of high tension. The opening meetings will see all five voicing their respective wishes and conditions," Shea stated.
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According to the senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, Nikolai Sokov, the U.S. took Russia's suggestions seriously, pointing out that the tensions on Ukraine's conflict may escalate to dangerous levels. "Of course, there are limits to what Washington may contemplate, but at least a serious dialogue can begin," Sokov noted.
"There can only be a de facto, tacit agreement not to admit Ukraine and Georgia in the foreseeable future; there can also be a tacit agreement on limits to extending NATO military infrastructure to these countries, but nothing formal," Sokov stressed, and continued to say that "a compromise is possible, of course, but there are limits to what would be acceptable to both Washington and Moscow."
The Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs and the director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia, M. V. Ramana, highlighted the involvement of other parties in the talks between the U.S. and Russia.
"Besides the United States and Russia, the security concerns of various countries near the border with Russia and in Eastern Europe are also at stake. Proposals that might be problematic to them might not be acceptable. Further, it is likely that U.S. interlocutors will insist on Russia giving various guarantees in exchange," she said.