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The WTO considers that "the forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous estimate of 21.3 percent growth, leaving merchandise trade well below its pre-pandemic trend in 2021.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasted on Tuesday early signs of recovery. This year, it predicts a 9.2 percent decrease in global merchandise trade volume compared to the 12.9 percent anticipated in April.
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The WTO reported that "strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020," and Asia´s trade is the less affected by the crisis unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic as declines of exports and exports are smaller than other regions.
BREAKING: World trade shows signs of bouncing back from a #COVID19 induced slump but WTO economists caution that any recovery could still be disrupted. The latest #WTOForecast is here: https://t.co/NTFPBfVIPA pic.twitter.com/eSVwFjqkzx
— WTO (@wto) October 6, 2020
However, the organization warns that towards the end of the year, there might be a setback as second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic are reported worldwide. Europe and North America had the most profound decline as exports contracted 24.5 percent and 21.8 percent.
Nonetheless, the WTO considers that "the forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous estimate of 21.3 percent growth, leaving merchandise trade well below its pre-pandemic trend in 2021."
In particular, the automotive industry reported the steepest fall among all the other sectors while the report points out that the decline in services trade during the pandemic has been at least as strong as the fall in merchandise trade.
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