Colombian leftist senator Ivan Cepeda has strengthened his frontrunner status for the presidential elections scheduled for May 31, practically doubling the voting intention of his closest rival, the far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, according to a survey released on Wednesday, February 25.

Invamer’s poll for Noticias Caracol and Blu Radio shows Cepeda, of the Historic Pact party, at 37.1%, up from 31.9% in November. His closest competitor, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella of the Defenders of the Homeland party, has stagnated at 18.9%, a marginal increase from the 18.2% he held previously.

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In a stunning rise, former Bogota mayor Claudia Lopez of Imparables party has captured third place, skyrocketing from 4.1% to 11.7% since November. Senator Paloma Valencia from the Democratic Center party has experienced a similar rise, vaulting from 1.1% three months ago to 10% today.

The candidate who saw the steepest decline in the Invamer poll is Sergio Fajardo, a standard-bearer for Colombia’s political center, whose support slipped from 8.5% to 6.6%, dropping him from third to fifth place.

The survey, conducted among 3,800 people from February 11 to 22 (margin of error: 1.93%), indicates that no candidate would reach an absolute majority, forcing a June 21 runoff. In that matchup, Cepeda leads De La Espriella by 59.4% to 37.4%, a 22-point gap consistent with November’s findings.

On March 8, alongside the elections for the Senate and House of Representatives, three consultations will be held to define other presidential candidacies for the right, center, and left.

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