Finding Nemo, the IEA Discovers Its ‘Missing Barrels’
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By: HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General
May 20, 2025 Hour: 11:58 am
The miscalculating of global supply and demand dynamics can lead to a misinterpretation of market trends.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) has again found its ‘missing barrels’. Although the term should be viewed as a misnomer. Barrels are never actually missing; it is just that global demand for oil is being materially under-counted.
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This is highlighted once again in the IEA’s May 2025 Oil Market Report (OMR), with a major historical oil demand revision that cumulatively represents a change of 343 million barrels. That is close to three-and-a-half days of global oil demand.
The Agency’s so-called ‘missing barrels’ have been a recurring theme of its data and forecasts. Concerns around this can be traced back to 1997/98 and every episode related to this has ended up with the IEA revising upward its demand figures.
For 2025, it refers to the IEA having reported inventory levels in previous years, particularly 2022, 2023 and 2024, that are much higher than they eventually turn out to be. This has major implications for historical and future oil market balances.
According to the IEA’s May OMR, the world consumed 0.26 million barrels a day (mb/d) more in 2022 than previously reported, with increases of 0.33 mb/d in 2023 and 0.35 mb/d in 2024. These substantial revisions, with previous yearly increases getting rolled forward into subsequent years, have now turned the IEA’s oil market balances for all three years from a supply surplus into deficits.
At the push of a publishing button, the Agency erased three years’ worth of apparent global oil stock builds. Storage tanks are a lot less full than the IEA had been reporting previously and global balances are much tighter. It has shifted an outlook that was viewed as bearish to one that was on the bullish side.
The miscalculating of global supply and demand dynamics can lead to a misinterpretation of market trends, significantly affecting sentiment and market fundamentals. This has serious implications for producers, consumers, and more broadly, the global economy.
Additionally, this can feed the narrative that the IEA itself has propagated that there is no need for investments in new oil supply and undermines current and future energy security.
Questions are being asked as to why the IEA took so long to reconcile its data series. Of course, we recognize that forecasting is not an exact science, but historical data, particularly from many years previous, needs to be accurate to enable the best forecasts moving forward.
Currently, the IEA still sees supply running ahead of demand in 2025 by around 0.7 mb/d, but could this also be revised in the years to come? What is clear is that when it comes to the IEA’s ‘missing barrels’ conundrum, a significant upward demand revision is usually the outcome.
The revisions are also at odds with the comments from the IEA Executive Director that ‘data always wins’. Which IEA data has won on this occasion? Accurate data matters – this is the cog that drives true market sentiment, enables better predictability and market balancing, and provides the appropriate light for future investment.
This reshaping of how the historical oil market can be viewed leads to questions of accountability and transparency, and it is important to reflect on the potential consequences of underestimating demand for such a lengthy period.
Author: HE Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General
Source: OPEC
The opinions expressed in this section do not necessarily represent those of teleSUR