Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China later this month to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, his first visit to the country in more than seven years. The trip comes as India’s relationship with the United States faces renewed strain over trade and energy ties.

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Modi is expected in the Chinese city of Tianjin for the SCO summit beginning August 31, marking his first visit to China since June 2018. The gathering of the Eurasian political and security bloc—which includes China, Russia, and several Central Asian states—comes amid India’s shifting diplomatic posture as tensions with Washington escalate.

Bilateral ties with the United States have been under growing pressure following President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian goods, reportedly the highest among Asian economies. Trump has also threatened further penalties over India’s continued imports of Russian oil, warning of an additional 10% tariff on imports from BRICS members he accuses of “aligning themselves with anti-American policies.”

India and China have been cautiously improving relations after a deadly military clash on their disputed Himalayan border in 2020. A meeting between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of a BRICS summit in Russia last October paved the way for a gradual diplomatic thaw and a limited resumption of trade and travel.

Meanwhile, India’s National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is in Moscow on a scheduled visit expected to include discussions on oil purchases and defense cooperation, including delayed deliveries of Russia’s S-400 air defense system. A potential visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to India is also reportedly under consideration. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar is expected to travel to Russia in the coming weeks.

Trade talks between India and the United States have stalled, with officials on both sides citing political missteps and unaddressed tensions. In 2024, bilateral trade between the two countries exceeded \$190 billion, with Indian exports totaling approximately \$81 billion.

According to an internal government assessment reviewed by Reuters, up to \$64 billion in Indian exports—roughly 80% of shipments to the U.S.—could be affected by the new tariffs. The estimate assumes a 10% penalty on oil imports, which would raise total duties to 35%. Despite the potential impact, the report notes that India’s \$4 trillion economy is relatively insulated due to its low export dependency.

On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of India maintained its GDP growth projection at 6.5% for the current fiscal year and held interest rates steady, citing macroeconomic stability despite trade uncertainties.

India’s trade and foreign ministries have not commented publicly on the developments.

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