India’s recent airstrikes in Kashmir and suspension of the historic Indus Waters Treaty mark a critical escalation in the conflict with Pakistan, posing risks to regional stability and bilateral cooperation.

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On May 6, India launched airstrikes against nine targets in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, identified as “terrorist infrastructure” linked to the April attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 Hindu tourists. The Indian government emphasized that the operations were “focused, measured, and not escalatory,” avoiding military installations to contain the confrontation.

Earlier, on April 23, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, in force since 1960, which had survived previous wars. Although understandable within India’s national security framework, this decision raises concerns over its impact on Pakistan, where the Indus River’s water is vital for agriculture and the economy

🚨🇵🇰🇮🇳 BREAKING:
Reports of Pakistani Al-Khalid/VT-1A Main Battle Tanks spotted movinttacg toward the India–Pakistan border#IndiaPakistanWar #war #india#Pakistan #attackonpakistan #attack pic.twitter.com/qpFsUTxY7B

— Mr. NAS (@mr_nas707) May 7, 2025

Humanitarian Impact and Regional Risks

Pakistan condemned the strikes, reporting civilian casualties and damage to critical infrastructure, including hydroelectric plants, warning that any manipulation of water resources would be considered an act of war. The international community watches with concern as this dynamic could worsen the humanitarian crisis and further destabilize the region.

While India adopts a tougher stance, the treaty suspension and restrictive measures reflect a strategy to pressure Pakistan to stop supporting terrorist groups, according to New Delhi. However, experts warn that cutting traditional diplomatic channels may limit negotiation options and increase the risk of escalation.

“Now is the time for maximum restraint.”

Amid high tensions between India & Pakistan, @antonioguterres stresses the importance of avoiding a military confrontation & offers support to any initiative that promotes de-escalation, diplomacy & peace.https://t.co/nUgLtjKpZT pic.twitter.com/53O7ikKOQN

— United Nations (@UN) May 5, 2025

The Historical Complexity of the Conflict

The Kashmir conflict has deep roots dating back to the 1947 colonial partition, with opposing territorial claims and recurring violence. The recent crisis highlights the fragility of peace in the region and the urgent need to address the structural causes fueling the violence.

From a critical but balanced perspective, it is necessary to recognize India’s right to defend its security against terrorism while urging both parties to preserve dialogue mechanisms and avoid actions that could worsen civilian suffering. The stability of South Asia depends on the political will to seek peaceful and lasting solutions.

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