The GDP forecast for Latin America as a whole rose to 2.2%.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its “World Economic Outlook: Global Economy—Tenuous Resilience amid Persistent Uncertainty,” a report highlighting that the Chinese economy is expected to grow more than the U.S. economy.

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The IMF has revised its global growth forecast for 2025 upward to 3%, two-tenths of a percentage point higher than its April projection, mainly due to anticipated increases in imports and investment.

This change especially benefits China, which is now projected to grow by 4.8%—eight-tenths of a point higher than estimated in April. In comparison, the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.9%, up one-tenth of a point.

The “anticipated surge in imports” refers to companies purchasing foreign goods earlier and in larger quantities than usual to avoid potential cost increases. In this case, purchases were advanced during the first half of the year amid expectations that imports would become more expensive due to tariff threats from President Donald Trump’s administration.

The IMF believes this imbalance will partially correct itself with weaker growth in late 2025 and into 2026 as the effects of the early demand taper off.

China’s Export Strength

Among major economies, China saw the largest upward revision, thanks to strong export performance in the first quarter of this year—bolstered by a depreciating yuan and the diversion of goods to markets other than the U.S.—and accommodative fiscal policies by Beijing aimed at boosting domestic consumption.

The U.S. growth outlook improved by one-tenth of a point compared to April, helped by a pause in the tariffs originally proposed by Trump and the passage of the Fiscal Responsibility Act. For 2026, the IMF raised the U.S. potential growth estimate by three-tenths of a point, forecasting 2% expansion, while China’s projection increased by two-tenths to 4.2%.

China’s improvement is also expected to positively impact emerging Asian economies, whose 2025 growth forecast was raised by six-tenths of a point to 5.1%.

Mexico also saw a notable upward revision. It is now expected to grow by 0.2% this year instead of contracting by 0.3%, as the report notes a reduced risk of a major trade shock due to a softening of Washington’s tariff stance.

Brazil, Canada, and Japan also received upward revisions. Their updated 2025 growth rates now stand at 2.3% for Brazil, 1.6% for Canada, and 0.7% for Japan. The forecast for Latin America as a whole rose by two-tenths of a point for 2025 to 2.2% and remains unchanged for 2026 at 2.4%.

teleSUR/ JF

Sources: EFE – IMF

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