The upsurge in Boko Haram attacks has reignited fears of escalating insecurity in northeast Nigeria, as the Islamist extremist group intensifies incursions into military bases, sabotages roads, and targets civilian communities.

Despite the Nigerian military’s assurances of victory, the conflict—Africa’s longest-running since 2009—remains deeply entrenched, having killed an estimated 35,000 civilians and displaced over two million, according to UN reports. The latest attack in Gajibo, Borno State, left nine local militia members dead, highlighting the worsening hostilities.

Boko Haram has fractured into two primary factions, each employing distinct tactics.

• ISWAP (Islamic State’s West Africa Province), backed by the Islamic State, has secured military victories, conducting sophisticated nighttime operations with modified drones to seize weapons and kill Nigerian soldiers.
• Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) focuses on civilian terror, kidnappings for ransom, and executions of suspected collaborators.

Experts warn that ISWAP’s decentralized strategies and foreign alliances allow multi-front attacks, intensifying the insurgency.

Military bases in Borno State and surrounding areas suffer from chronic personnel and equipment shortages, leaving them vulnerable to insurgent raids. Soldiers frequently retreat due to insufficient reinforcements, resulting in insurgent takeovers of weapons and equipment.

Reports indicate that former militants, operating under the guise of repentance, facilitate logistical networks for insurgents, further complicating counterterrorism efforts.

At its peak in 2013-2014, Boko Haram controlled a territory the size of Belgium, infamously kidnapping 270 Chibok schoolgirls. Though weakened in recent years, its renewed territorial expansion raises concerns of a return to widespread chaos.

Borno’s Governor Babagana Zulum has criticized the disbanding of military units without proper coordination, warning that reduced security presence in conflict zones enables insurgents to reclaim lost ground.

Military and political leaders are pressing for increased defense force capabilities, promising stronger deployments to combat the growing militant resurgence.

With violence worsening daily, the fight against Boko Haram remains a race against time—and Nigeria’s stability hangs in the balance.

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