Argentina’s aggressive import liberalization under the Milei government threatens more than 430,000 jobs, primarily in manufacturing, as experts warn of severe economic and social consequences without a strategic industrial policy.

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Argentina’s recent shift toward rapid trade liberalization, spearheaded by President Javier Milei’s administration, is generating alarm among experts and social organizations. According to a report by the Fundar Foundation, the absence of a coherent industrial development plan alongside the sweeping removal of import restrictions risks the loss of over 430,000 jobs, disproportionately impacting manufacturing sectors and deepening economic vulnerabilities.

The government’s policy, which aims to open markets and increase competition by easing import controls and eliminating bureaucratic barriers, is being implemented without complementary measures to protect and strengthen domestic production. This approach, critics argue, threatens to undermine Argentina’s industrial base and exacerbate unemployment.

Fundar’s report, titled “Opening Without a Parachute,” projects that Argentina’s import bill could rise by approximately $12.4 billion based on 2024 prices, driven by the liberalization measures. Without mechanisms to support local industries, this surge in imports is expected to cause a 2.6% decline in the gross value of production and a 2.2% drop in the gross added value of the national economy.

These contractions translate directly into diminished domestic wealth generation and increased economic fragility. The manufacturing sector, which remains a key source of employment and economic activity, faces the brunt of these losses.

The labor market implications are stark: Fundar estimates that 431,452 jobs,about 2.3% of private sector employment,are at risk due to the unchecked opening of imports. The manufacturing industry alone accounts for 65% of these vulnerable jobs, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of families.

Within manufacturing, the electronics industry stands out as the most vulnerable, with over 90% of its workforce at risk. Other sectors facing significant threats include furniture, mattress, toy production, textiles, apparel, footwear, and wood products.

¿Cuál es el impacto en el empleo de la apertura comercial en curso?

En nuevo trabajo de @fundarpoliticas se estima en 431.000 empleos.

Mayoría de varones, adultos jóvenes, nivel educativo medio, asalariados formales. https://t.co/Ti1JaBOgrN pic.twitter.com/sSqflDnxhn

— Daniel Schteingart (@danyscht) July 8, 2025

The text reads: What is the employment impact of the ongoing trade liberalization?
A new study by @fundarpoliticas estimates it at 431,000 jobs.
The majority are men, young adults, with medium education levels, and formal salaried workers.

Geographically, the central region, especially Buenos Aires, is projected to suffer the highest absolute job losses, while provinces like Tierra del Fuego, Misiones, and La Rioja face the most severe proportional impacts.

While the government promotes import liberalization as a path to lower consumer prices and increased market efficiency, experts emphasize that without a robust industrial policy, these benefits are unlikely to materialize. The absence of protective measures and incentives for innovation and modernization leaves local industries exposed to foreign competition, risking deindustrialization.

Recent reforms have included the elimination of the SIRA import system, easing customs procedures, and reducing tariffs on various products. However, these moves have not been accompanied by strategic investments or policies to enhance productivity or support workers displaced by import competition.

Argentina’s experience underscores the risks of rapid trade liberalization implemented without a comprehensive development framework. The challenge lies in balancing the benefits of market openness with the need to preserve industrial capacity, protect jobs, and promote equitable economic growth.

Experts call for an urgent reassessment of current policies, advocating for integrated strategies that combine trade openness with industrial innovation, labor protections, and social safeguards to ensure that economic liberalization does not come at the expense of Argentina’s productive fabric and social stability.

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