US-Russia Security Talks to Start in Geneva Amid Tensions

The security talks between the United States and Russia in Geneva scheduled for Monday have drawn attention from the international community.

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The talks are expected to focus on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the rising tensions in Ukraine. Such issues as arms control, cybersecurity and climate change may also be raised. While calling the dialogue a positive signal to improve frayed U.S.-Russia relations, experts are cautious about its outcomes.

NO QUICK FIXES

"We have to manage expectations," Thomas Greminger, director of the Geneva Center for Security Policy who previously served as secretary general of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe from 2017 to 2020, said.

"It's obviously great that we will see another round of this Strategic Stability Dialogue on Monday here in Geneva. I think it's good that they meet and talk, but clearly for the issues on the agenda there are no quick fixes. I would expect the meeting on Monday to be an opportunity to spell out mutual concerns, to spell out mutual expectations," he added.

Keith Krause, a professor at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, said, "I'm not very optimistic. I think that it's more the beginning of a longer-term conversation."

"I know that certainly U.S. President Joe Biden attempted to reset the relationship with the Russians last year, and I believe that's a long and slow process because there are many, many very clear differences between the two. Ukraine being one of them, but there are a number of other issues that are quite conflictual at this point. On the nuclear dialogue, perhaps I would be a bit more optimistic that they will begin to have some conversations," he explained.

In a year-end telephone call between Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, the two leaders discussed the decision to launch the negotiations under which Russia's security would be ensured in a bid to prevent a further escalation of tensions. Biden emphasized that Russia and the United States bear a special responsibility for ensuring stability in Europe and the world.

TENSIONS IN UKRAINE

The two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council have vowed to de-escalate the standoff over Ukraine. Amidst heightening tensions, the Biden administration had previously threatened Russia with fresh, sweeping sanctions. Russia responded that further large-scale economic sanctions would lead to a severing of relations between Moscow and the West.

On Friday, the foreign ministers of NATO member states held an extraordinary virtual meeting to discuss "Russia's continued military build-up in and around Ukraine" and broader European security issues. For Ukraine, seeking NATO membership has become one of its foreign policy priorities. In Feb. 2019, the Ukrainian parliament adopted amendments to the constitution, securing the country's aspiration to join the alliance.

"Even without these current tensions and without this meeting about to happen, NATO membership of Ukraine couldn't be expected any time soon since there is a de facto moratorium on this issue in a few very important Western capitals," Greminger said.

Krause agreed with Greminger, saying, "I don't think that Ukraine will join NATO any time soon. I do think that the country itself is in some sense divided."

POTENTIAL COOPERATION

Greminger warned that geopolitical tensions between Washington and Moscow are likely to continue this year. However, at least some common ground for cooperation could be found.

"I have no doubt that this geopolitical competition, this geopolitical rivalry will continue throughout 2022. But I would hope to see in these talks in Geneva an indicator of the will of the great powers to at least manage this competition, perhaps even manage this competition carefully," he said.

"This would imply that they identify areas of common interest where they would agree to cooperate despite the geopolitical competition. There are some obvious potential areas of cooperation," Greminger mentioned, referring to issues ranging from climate change, technology and artificial intelligence to the global fight against COVID-19.