The Impact of COVID-19 on Africa's Power Future

The crisis facing energy access in Africa, with over 600 million people projected to be without electricity, is tied to histories of resource extraction, competition for dominance through militarism which the conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic stand to worsen. 

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State lockdowns have restricted movement and impacted manufacturing and other sites of production, alongside the viability of countless small and medium enterprises. 

Mass retrenchments are becoming normalized globally which could trigger a cascading economic recession and falling wages. The net impact of this could lead to a debt crisis on existing large infrastructure projects, and a drop in energy demand. 

This is expected to accompany an increase in use of harmful fuels and biomass for cooking and lighting in poor households throughout urban centers across the continent deepening levels of energy poverty. 

South Africa’s state energy utility ESKOM, which is estimated to produce close to 30% of Africa's used electrical energy, stands in deep financial crisis.

The devastating result of state and private sector corruption, flawed municipal funding mechanisms, and a declining mining and manufacturing sector have seen the state company move towards unbundling its operations as a step towards partial privatization.

The discovery of tremendous reserves of natural gas in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique has led to the development of the 3 largest Liquid Natural Gas projects in Africa. Financed by multinationals Total, British Petroleum, ENI, ExxonMobil, and the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), among others, developments have since failed to benefit the residents of Cabo Delgado.

Local fishing communities have been displaced and promises of resettlement fees have failed to materialize. Alarmingly in the wake of the gas discovery war has struck the region with arm conflict between the Mozambican state, private security firms protecting plant infrastructure, and ISIL-linked Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama. 

The Eastern African Power Pool (EAPP), a regional collaborative body, constituted of 11 member states across East Africa including Egypt and Libya, was established to develop pathways to interconnect national grid infrastructure and regulate energy trading between states.

Hydropower has been among the largest and most reliable sources of energy in the region with Ethiopia's new Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam rated at 6MW set to be Africa’s largest to date.

The project has been the source of severe diplomatic tensions with Sudan and Egypt whose access to the Nile will be severely impacted by the project damaging fertile agricultural lands. The state-owned Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation has approached financing of the US$4.8 billion project through an aggressive attempt to raise local capital by issuing state bonds, borrowing against state-owned banks alongside securing Chinese foreign investment. Should the project yield positive results it may encourage other African states to move towards central planning in the sector.

Similarly, the West African Power Pool (WAPP) includes 14 member states that are largely dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil-fired plants which lead to generation costs at almost double the global average with less than half of the population having grid access to electricity.

Despite the abundance of oil reserves available in states such as Nigeria, energy access remains the purview of corporations, wealthy and narrow middle-class residents who benefit from the sale of cheap resources to powerful Western multinationals

Renewable energy, while still at the margins of development in Africa, could see itself on the agenda of post-Corona relief and state restructuring plans of climate-friendly alternatives. Ownership, financing, and the broader role of energy in transforming society however remain crucial questions for Africa’s energy future.

Leadership from trade unions and progressive social movements will be key in ensuring that power is put into its rightful hands.