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Update 20.40 (Scotland)
Nate Silver in an email said, "When I was in Scotland last year on a book tour, a reporter asked me an off-handed question about the referendum and I provided an off-handed answer despite not really having spent any time studying it ... That's not usually my style, and I regret the error of having behaved like a television pundit."
He made this forecast last August at the Edinburgh International Book Festival where he said that the data on the vote was “pretty definitive” that the “yes” side had “virtually no chance” of succeeding. "For the most part it looks like it's a question of how much the 'no' side will win by, not what the outcome might be."
One of the latest surveys released on Thursday showed the “no” vote winning by 4 to 6 percent.
Update 20.00 (Scotland)
Interview carried out today from Quito for teleSUR English, with Peter Hayawaka from the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) based in Scotland.
Update 19.20 (Scotland)
Betting markets are showing that gamblers believe Scotland will stay a part of the United Kingdom.
There's an 80% Chance Scotland Will Stay Part of the UK, per Betting Sites http://t.co/NjJuTMRKCZ
— Stacy Martinet (@stacymartinet)
September 18, 2014
Update 19.00 (Scotland)
There have been reports of some polling station attendance had already reached 100 percent.
Some polls in Scotland may have reached 100% turnout, but can't close until 10pm: @acoyne https://t.co/3CVIg9xOQe
— Patrick Cain (@pcaintoronto)
September 18, 2014
This could be a worldwide record voting turnout.
Indications of v high #indyref turnout. Here's how Scotland could shatter electoral records here & around the world: pic.twitter.com/qaro0gGJPE
— Martyn McLaughlin (@MartynMcL)
September 18, 2014
The pound is rallying, suggesting market investors are behind the no vote.
British pound rallies as market bets Scotland will stay http://t.co/aamymEETvK pic.twitter.com/y2yiHtUD6u
— FRANCE 24 (@FRANCE24)
September 18, 2014
Update 18.30 (Scotland)
In North Scotland, 92 percent of postal votes came in, with an expected 80 percent turnout compared with the European elections was only at about 30 percent.
92% of postal votes returned on Shetland, expected turnout is 80% #indyref
— The Linc (@thelinc)
September 18, 2014
Also more and more people are starting to gather around parliament in anticipation of results
Crowds gathering now outside parliament #indyref pic.twitter.com/pKQJfV0NHi
— Holyrood magazine (@HolyroodDaily)
September 18, 2014
Update 17.00 (Scotland)
George Square, the largest square in Glasgow is jammed with Yes supporters this afternoon in anticipation of the result.
My view of George Square. #indyref pic.twitter.com/xMEC9y3rUb
— Colum (@clummf)
September 17, 2014
And meanwhile, the White House all but endorsed the No campaign with its tweet which was retweeted by British Prime Minister David Cameron.
The UK is an extraordinary partner for America and a force for good in an unstable world. I hope it remains strong, robust and united. -bo
— The White House (@WhiteHouse)
September 17, 2014
Update 16.30 (Scotland)
There have been reports of polling station vandalisation by supporters of the yes vote, with one saying “vote Yes, or else.” The local member of parliament Jackie Bailli tweeted and image of it.
Shocking behaviour from yes campaigners. Should not be trying to threaten and intimidate #voteno #indyref pic.twitter.com/L7zhP5rDFc
— Jackie Baillie (@jackiebmsp)
September 18, 2014
Scottish police have also confirmed that in Clydebank, one Yes supporter, aged 44, was arrested after allegedly assaulting a man he believed would be voting No. He is due to appear at Dumbarton Sheriff Court tomorrow morning – when the final result is expected to have been announced.
Update 15.30 (Scotland)
Polling stations have been busy all morning but there have been no complaints of intimidation of voters, and the threatened potential “carnage” has not been in evidence. Unconfirmed reports suggest that there has so far been one arrest at a polling station.
A Labour left leader has tweeted that he was spat on by members of the No campaign.
Stood outside the Better Together office in Leith, and just been spat at in broad daylight. (Fortunately, he missed)
— Mark Ferguson (@Markfergusonuk)
September 18, 2014
The expected declaration times start at 2am local time, with some polls not expected to be ready until 6am local time.
Scottish Referendum results - Expected Timing pic.twitter.com/tVIrWMRUNq
— Nicola (@nmj25)
September 12, 2014
The latest twitter trend map shows that social media is behind the Yes vote, for Scotland to become an independent nation.
This is how the UK looks today #indyref http://t.co/2MXWtnWN1u http://t.co/ZGwGIPf1qQ
— Trendsmap (@Trendsmap)
September 18, 2014
If hashtags could vote in #indyref, result would be clear... Twitter data from @JoannaUK http://t.co/X7SASJXWhB pic.twitter.com/SedlEXOXbQ
— Andrew Stroehlein (@astroehlein)
September 18, 2014
The famous Scottish tennis player Andy Murray has recently had a change of mind and is getting behind the independence.
Huge day for Scotland today! no campaign negativity last few days totally swayed my view on it. excited to see the outcome. lets do this!
— Andy Murray (@andy_murray)
September 18, 2014
Alex Salmond, a leader of the independence movement has tweeted that the atmosphere is electric at voting booths.
The atmosphere is electric in Turriff... #LetsDoThis Scotland! pic.twitter.com/q4dEeQ9pq6
— Alex Salmond (@AlexSalmond)
September 18, 2014
Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron makes a last minute plea to Scottish voters.
On Thursday, Scotland votes - and the future of the UK is at stake. Please help keep our family of nations together: https://t.co/j0JkdjiK7f
— David Cameron (@David_Cameron)
September 15, 2014
Catalans in Barcelona are also getting behind the independence of Scotland.
Catalans getting in on the act at the Scottish parliament #indyref pic.twitter.com/gUhhzVb2VZ
— Paul Owen (@PaulTOwen)
September 18, 2014
READ MORE:
Celebrities on Scottish Independence: Pros and Cons
Donetsk Supports Scottish Independence
Scottish Independence Around the World