May Expected to Delay Brexit Negotiations by 3 Months

Without the requisite parliamentary authorization, all indications are pointing to United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May being pressured into requesting a three-month extension to the two-year Brexit negotiation period. 

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If the British Parliament supports the Brexit deal but does not authorize it in time for the European Union (EU) summit on March 21, this "technical extension" will allow parliament to tie off any legislative loose ends related to the UK's departure from the bloc. But, since both sides wish to avoid a scenario in which the UK is forced to participate in European elections from May 23-26, the delay is not expected to last more than three months. 

While EU officials call the three-month extension a best-case scenario, May has insisted that she prefers to have the UK exit the EU at the end of March, as originally planned. The pressure is now on May to amend the most disputed part of the deal, the so-called backstop, to avoid a no-deal scenario or intervention from the British Parliament. 

The backstop is May's attempt to prevent a hard border and, instead, maintain the UK-to-EU market and customs standards so goods remain unchecked along the Ireland-Northern Ireland border. The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party has voiced concerns regarding how that process would affect Northern Ireland's place in the UK.

"If the backstop is dealt with in the withdrawal agreement then, despite the fact that we may have misgivings around other parts of the withdrawal agreement, we will support the prime minister because we do want Brexit to happen in an orderly and sustained fashion," DUP leader Arlene Foster said.

Brexit supporters also expressed concerns, fearing that the UK would remain bound to EU rules in the long run. In Brussels, negotiations continue to find a legal guarantee to prevent the hard border, potentially by applying the backstop strategy temporarily. 

As the deadline inches closer, the risk of the UK leaving the bloc on March 29 without a deal is being taken very seriously. Any postponement has to be formally requested by the United Kingdom and accepted by the rest of the EU governments promptly. Several rows have surfaced, including Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond threatening to step down, and some 100 Tory Party lawmakers signing a letter addressed to May, stating they will vote against her to prevent a no-deal Brexit. 

In a pre-emptive move, companies have begun stockpiling food because a no-deal would impose strict border controls on the 80% of imported food consumed by Brits. Frozen food storage at supermarkets has already reached capacity, in anticipation of a potential food shortage. No-deal planning cooperation between the EU and the UK is limited only to the finance sector, although banks are already anticipating the consequences of a currency shock, which could plunge the value of the sterling by as much as 20 percent.