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The former mayor of Colombia's capital city Bogotá, Gustavo Petro, and former mayor of Medellin, Sergio Fajardo, are leading a recent poll for the presidential election in an upset to traditional political parties and conservative sectors led by former president Alvaro Uribe, a staunch detractor of Colombia’s peace process.
The poll requested by three local media outlets Blu Radio, Semana and Caracol News, which was conducted between Jan. 25 and 29, shows Gustavo Petro has 23 percent of likely voters, while Sergio Fajardo has 20 percent.
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The two candidates are politically far away from the right-wing represented by Alvaro Uribe and his candidate Ivan Duque, who currently has 9.2 percent of vote intention.
Unlike Duque, they both support Colombia’s peace process and the deal reached with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), and both have incorporated the importance of guaranteeing basic social and economic rights into their campaign.
However, the political landscape in Colombia is marked by a general anti-political establishment sentiment, and high levels of abstentionism, blank and null votes.
This year’s presidential election will be the first in Colombian history in which most of the candidates were registered through gathering enough popular support via signatures, traditionally the majority of the candidates would have qualified by representing a particular political party. Of the 13 candidates, eight gathered the signatures required to register, including the two leading candidates.
Many analysts believe it may be too early to know how the presidential candidates will fare in the May 27 elections, arguing polls don’t measure the capacity of each candidate’s political machinery, which will be tested on March 11, when Colombians elect 102 senators and 166 members of the House of Representatives.
The latest poll on the legislative elections was published on Feb 2, and it reveals that the party founded by former president Alvaro Uribe, Centro Democratico, is leading with 15.6 percent. A favorable result in the country's legislative elections could boost Ivan Duques presidential candidacy.
The same poll has, however, placed the number of undecided voters or blank votes at 23.4 percent, with another 15.9 percent of persons surveyed saying that wouldn't vote for any of the parties listed. Null and blank votes in the presidential poll accounted for 30 percent in the poll, while abstentionism in Colombia is regularly high accounting for roughly half of voters.
So far, the only certainty is that the Common Alternative Revolutionary Force, the party that emerged from FARC after the 2016 peace agreement will have five seats in the Senate and five more in the House.
FARC’s integration into democratic political life has not been free from controversy or stumbling blocks. On Feb. 9 their presidential candidate Rodrigo Londoño, also known as Timochenko, was forced to suspend his presidential campaign due to constant threats and attacks against him and other FARC candidates.
Since the implementation of the peace agreements in 2016, 36 FARC members have been murdered.
The legislative elections may also have an impact on Fajardo's and Petro’s candidacies. Political analyst Ariel Avila expects the Green Party and the Democratic Pole to get 10 seats in Congress. “If these parties maintain that trend or increase, Fajardo’s candidacy is secured, but if a debacle happens, his candidacy would crumble,” Avila explains.
According to Avila, Gustavo Petro’s Progressives political movement has “few possibilities” in the legislative elections, and “it is probable that on March 11 Petro’s candidacy will begin to decrease.”
This remains to be seen, especially because of his popularity among the disenchanted and Colombia’s popular classes (formal and informal workers, campesinos, social movements, and sectors of the middle class who advocate for social justice).
Petro has an extensive political career. He was a member of the M-19 movement for roughly 10 years and participated in the process that led to the movement’s disarmament, later he became a member of the House of Representatives, and senator for one period (2006-2010).
He has faced fierce media criticism accusing him of not being able to manage public finances and spreading anti-communist fear, however as mayor of Bogota he reduced public debt and kept the city’s AAA credit rating.
Fajardo also has an important political career. Aside from being mayor of Medellin he was also Governor of Antioquia from 2012 until 2015, and like Petro, he wants to tackle social disparities, corruption and bring about reconciliation but specific policies remain unclear.
Unlike Petro’s campaign platform, which includes guaranteeing free access to health and education, and moving out of an extractive economy by fomenting the agricultural sector Fajardo speaks in broader terms about guaranteeing opportunities.
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