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News > Argentina

Argentina: Polls Say President Macri to Lose Upcoming Elections

  • Presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez in Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 31, 2019.

    Presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez in Buenos Aires, Argentina, July 31, 2019. | Photo: Reuters

Published 3 August 2019

The political formula including ex-President Cristina Fernandez has an advantage of up to 5 points over the right-wing candidates.

With nine days to go before the primary elections in Argentina, Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez have an advantage of 5 percentage points over Miguel Angel Picheto and incumbent Argentinian President Mauricio Macri, according to "practically all the main opinion companies."


Financers, Millionaires, Private Companies Back Macri Coalition

"The difference ranges from four to five points in surveys conducted by phone; however, the difference is greater in surveys conducted in person," Pagina 12 reported.

According to the Spanish company Celag, the only pollster that carried out two polls directly at people's homes, Fernandez has 42.5 percent of the preferences and Macri 33.5 percent of the intention to vote.

“Face-to-face surveys have greater access to the young people and the most humble classes,” Pagina 12 commented and explained that Argentine poor families do not have much access to landlines or cell phones.

“It is true that phone surveys usually have correction factors to mathematically straighten those difficulties; however, such correction depends a lot on each consultant's skills.”

Seen from a more conservative perspective, which is what the mainstream media want to prevail, the average of all polls shows that voting intention favors Fernandez with 37.8 percent and Macri with 35.2 percent.

During the crisis, in one year, Macri increased his assets by 50 percent. In 2017 he declared a patrimony of 99 million pesos [US$2.2 million]. In 2018 his assets increased to almost 152 million pesos [US$3.3 million], without counting the famous 'blind trust'."

These opinion polls were carried out before Argentina knew that President Macri increased his assets by more than 50 percent in the last year, an expansion which does not takes into account the money he included in "the blind trust," a financial instrument whose magnitude could only be known six months after he leaves office.​​​

Meanwhile, what is already known is that the righ-wing president became a debt holder in the middle of the budget crisis of the Argentine state.

"In October 2018 Macri bought Argentine debt bonds for more than 94 million pesos [US$2.2 million]," El Clarin, a conservative media, revealed.

The loss of popularity of President Macri was evident again nine days before the primary elections. On Friday, very few people concentrated outside the Argentinean official residence to accompany the President in his campaign.

"This morning we arrived in Buenos Aires and we came to support the President,"  Francisco Bustos, who traveled from Tucuman to be in a rally in which less than 100 people participated, said.

“The only mass demonstration in favor of Macri occurred in April 2017 during his tenure,” recalled EFE.

From Saturday on, Argentine polling companies are prohibited from publishing or disseminating presidential electoral forecasts.


Argentina CFK
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