10 December 2015 - 08:25 PM
The 'Parliamentary Coup' Against Rousseff Swings Into Action
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Dilma Rousseff is confronting one of the biggest political battles of her lifetime: Impeachment.

People with a banner that reads “No to the coup” attend a protest against the impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff, Dec. 8, 2015.

The Brazilian president faces the very real possibility of being removed from office in what her supporters call a parliamentary coup, seeing it as an effort to retroactively win the 2014 election through non-democratic means.

Rousseff's re-election marked the fourth consecutive victory for the Workers Party, a fact that did not sit well with the country's right-wing politicians, who immediately started to conspire against the president.

ANALYSIS: Brazil’s Right-Wing Seeks to Oust Dilma, Fatally Damage Lula

Working against Rousseff is the fact that Brazil is facing a major economic downturn, with economists predicting the country's economy will not grow again until 2017.

Her opponents smell blood and are attempting to seize the opportunity to oust her by any means possible.

With Friends Like the PMDB, Who Needs Enemies?

One of the main groups working against Rousseff is the right-wing flank of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, known as the PMDB.

Together with the opposition-aligned Brazilian Social Democratic Party and 45 other movements and parties, conservative politicians are seeking to impeach President Rousseff.

This party is a curious political creature. It is a big tent party composed of a wide variety of political views; consequently, it lacks a coherent ideology. This is partially explained by the fact that the PMDB was the only opposition party permitted by Brazil's military dictatorship, which ruled from 1964 to 1985. That resulted in a wide range of actors joining the party, from conservatives to former leftist guerrillas.

The party's clout comes from its size and its shaky alliance with Rousseff's Workers Party, known as the PT.

The PMDB is split on the question of impeaching the president. However, the speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, is both a member of the party and leading the charge to remove the president from power.

The Role Played by the Conservative Politician Eduardo Cunha

As speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha controls if and when impeachment proceedings begin against Rousseff.

In November, Cunha told a gathering of lawmakers from the PMDB that the momentum to impeach President Dilma Rousseff had been lost and that he would not consider opening proceedings until 2016.

However, Cunha is facing his own problems over his alleged involvement in a complex corruption scandal involving the state-owned oil company Petrobras.

The government of Switzerland recently confirmed that it had frozen Cunha’s bank accounts and other assets over suspected money laundering. A Brazilian federal court also seized 2.4 million Swiss francs from an account belonging to Cunha.

A group of Brazilian political parties submitted a formal request to the Ethics Council of the Chamber of Deputies requesting Cunha be removed from his post as speaker.

It was only after three lawmakers from the Workers Party stated that they would vote to remove Cunha from his position that he decided to begin impeachment proceedings against Rousseff.

Since then, Cunha has engaged in a series of controversial maneuvers to increase the likelihood that Rousseff will be impeached.

He has employed clever tactics to avoid facing the Ethics Council, delaying the start of its review of his leadership for weeks, leaving him in an important seat of authority.

The internal regulations of the Chamber of Deputies dictate that the leader of each party select who will sit on the special committee.

Cunha, however, changed the method for selecting the candidates for the special impeachment committee, opting for a secret ballot instead.

Lawmakers in the Chamber ultimately voted 272-199 for a list of committee members drawn up by pro-impeachment members of the PMDB.

However, because the secret ballot method was not in line with internal regulations, the Brazilian Supreme Court accepted a request for an injunction to temporarily stop any further work concerning impeachment.

Will Vice-President Michel Temer Break with Rousseff?

The PMDB inside the Chamber of Deputies was, until recently, led by Leonardo Picciani, a pro-Rousseff lawmaker. However, in yet another maneuver, he was replaced with Leonardo Quintao, who supports impeachment.

As a result, even if the Supreme Court rules that the party leaders must select the candidates for the special committee, the PMDB will now likely nominate pro-impeachment lawmakers to sit on the committee.

This means that the special impeachment panel will likely be stacked with pro-impeachment lawmakers who will recommend the Chamber proceed with impeachment and a trial in the Senate.

As a result, Rousseff's survival depends on her securing the support of at least 172 members of the Chamber to prevent a two-thirds majority from formally opening impeachment proceedings.

As it stands, Rousseff has enough support to avoid impeachment—but maintaining that support is, in part, contingent on the position taken by her vice president, Michel Temer.

Temer, also of the PMDB, recently signaled that he is inching closer to supporting impeachment.

A controversial letter by Temer to Rousseff criticizing the president was recently leaked, though the letter stopped short of openly supporting impeachment.

Following the letter, Temer made public statements backing the actions of Eduardo Cunha, denying that any of the actions thus far should be seen as undemocratic.

Temer continues to deny that the PMDB is getting ready to break with Rousseff and her Workers Party, however.

If impeachment proceeds in the Senate, though, Rousseff will be forced to step down as the trial is conducted. If the Senate votes to remove her, Temer would serve out the rest of her term as president.

Rousseff Has Not Been Found Guilty of Any Wrongdoing

Supporters of the Rousseff government maintain that this push for impeachment is politically driven.

Indeed, Rousseff has not been found guilty of any wrongdoing.

Those seeking to impeach her point to a finding by the country's Federal Accounts Court, known as the TCU, alleging that Rousseff's government had manipulated state accounts in 2014 to disguise a widening fiscal deficit as she campaigned for re-election.

The TCU is an autonomous organ of the state, but its ruling in this case is not legally binding and must be confirmed by the Brazilian Congress.

ANALYSIS: Rousseff and the Federal Accounts Court

Cunha has effectively acknowledged Rousseff's presumption of innocence, having previously indicated that he would only take up impeachment proceedings if the Congress affirmed the finding of the TCU.

Brazilian social movements, rural groups and political parties have repeatedly stated that they will not allow this parliamentary coup to transpire.

IN DEPTH: The Brazilian Right Wing's Undermining of Democracy

Several groups have already announced a number of actions and protests to mobilize social movements to reject the impeachment and sway undecided lawmakers toward supporting President Rousseff.

Former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has said that he too will “take to the streets to defend the legitimate elected mandate of our president.”

Brazil Impeachment
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